This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card at Florida. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to acquire a great deal of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that match. I will attempt to get my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw 50-100 entrances at the $25k prize, and then I will likely have a few shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter anywhere this fight goes. I believe Gifford’s best shot at a win would be locking a guillotine. Aside from that, I think we have a pretty safe win here with Roberts and that is what I am searching for. I want the safer wins in money and I will worry about who’s going to score the highest in GPPs. I believe we can get away from him at the GPPs at his price because if he puts up 90 DK points in a win then won’t win $25k. It will help us triumph in cash games though and I’d be amazed if he had a low scoring win . I think he is excellent for 80-100 points here and I’m totally ok with this in my money lineup.
GPP play of the week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is the GPP play of this week and he has the greatest ITD chances on the card at -222. This is a set up fight for him to receive a knockout and I believe that is quite likely going to take place in the very first round. That should put Hardy over 100 things and I am considering that. Hardy will be one of my best plays of the week, but he is GPP just for me personally. We can not trust him sufficient for cash games, so that is the reason why I enjoy Roberts longer in that format. I really do think Hardy can outscore Roberts though if they win, and he’s $200 cheaper. That could knock Roberts off the very best lineup and in spite of higher ownership we can win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup as long as he gets the first KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is lined at -130 and that’s too good for me to pass on in GPPs.
Underdog drama of the week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no longer the underdog on the gambling line (-120) but DraftKings salaries don’t change once they’re released. We get Teixeira here for $400 cheaper than Cutelaba and he’s favored to get the win. I also think he can win in the 1st round with a submission and score over 90 points. That would give him a fantastic chance at being on the perfect lineup. I’ll be targeting both sides of this struggle in GPPs since I don’t expect it to move all 3 rounds, but value on Teixeira is exactly what I enjoy the most and we have to have”underdogs” in our DK lineups together with the $50k salary cap. I believe the obvious path to victory for Glover is to the ground and that’s what I anticipate his game must be. I like him to find a entry win if he can land takedowns and he will be among my greatest possessed underdogs this week.
Fade of the week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I know folks were expecting me to put Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She is a solid fade too… But I’m going with Esparza as my fade this week and I will have zero lineups including her. In general, Esparza is a decent wrestler and we enjoy wrestlers in DraftKings. I simply don’t see wrestling being in her best interest against Jandiroba and that I believe she uses her wrestling at shield to attempt and keep this battle on the toes. All the threat is on the floor in this matchup and Carla has the better boxing of both. I think she could acquire a 30-27 striking decision but won’t score highly, and I would guess it puts up around ~60 DK points. That is not going to reduce it at $8.2k so that I just don’t see how she ends up about the 25k lineup this week even if she does win, and that is why she is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I am 69-44 to get +224.83un (+$22,483) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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